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Hyperloop and High Speed Rail are a Waste of Time (and Money)?

Someone should do a full study of whether the Hyperloop and High Speed Rail (HSR) are worth the effort (investment) once self driving cars are prevalent.  Should we, instead, put a small amount of that money into enhanced self driving infrastructure (ESDI)?  ESDI would consist of dedicated highways and on/off ramps that can only be used by certified self driving cars.  ESDI can be reclaimed from existing roads and/or built as extra lanes alongside existing infrastructure.  It would have many less right-of-way issues than either HSR or Hyperloop.

Here are the basics:

California High Speed Rail (Phase 1, from SF to LA)

  • Will take a little over 2.5 hours from San Francisco to Los Angeles, on the train.
  • The construction is expected to cost more than the budgeted $68B
  • The user experience would be:
    • Drive, ride-share, or take transit to a station.  I would estimate 30 minutes per side, resulting in a 3.5 hour end-to-end time.  This also concentrates traffic at the stations, causing congestion.
    • Go through security of some sort.  An 'event' on the HSR would be significantly more impactful than on local trains.  In the worst case, taking HSR could become akin to taking a local flight (i.e. painful).
    • Once on the train, the user will have great connectivity or good relaxation time.
Hyperloop (for humans vs transport)
  • Very similar to the HSR experience, except that that the end to end time will be shorter.  Say the trip is 60 minutes (aggressive estimates are 30 minutes).  Hyperloop, however, is much more likely to be subject to security measures closer to an airport experience, due to the complex infrastructure and cost of an incident.  Let's estimate an extra hour, making the total end to end time three hours.
    • There may be intermediate stops, adding significantly to the time.
  • The cost is expected to be significantly less than HSR, but these early estimates are probably wildly optimistic.  Probably in the $10-$15B area.
Enhanced Self Driving Infrastructure (ESDI)
  • The cost of building highway infrastructure is about $3M/mile.  A very fast Self Driving highway needs only two lanes (one each direction) for the majority of its length - vehicles can efficiently platoon most of the time.  When there are tight corners or on/off ramps, the road can widen to multiple lanes (Done properly, this design would allow vehicles to travel bumper to bumper without "traffic waves."  In particular, as cars enter lower velocity curves, they can move into a side-by-side configuration, and then reform into a platoon as they exit the curve.  The number of parallel lanes is proportional to the required slow down of the vehicles).
    • So, the basic cost to put in ESDI from SF to LA would be about $1.2B (400 miles * $3M/mile).  Let's assume this is wildly optimistic, and it costs double; that is still a small number compared to either Hyperloop or HSR).
  • Here is the speculative bit.  Self driving cars should be able to move very fast on ESDI.  I am going to estimate 150mph maximum speed, with 130mph average.   Assuming reasonable on/off arteries, the total end-to-end time will be about three hours.  Better than HSR, and equivalent to Hyperloop.  Further, congestion is minimized.  There are more on/off ramps than there are Hyperloop or HSR terminals.  Also, there are no intermediate stops.
  • The user experience with ESDI is much better than either HSR or Hyperloop.
    • There is no security to go through.
    • You do not need to worry about getting to the source terminal or from the destination terminal to your ultimate destination.
    • No need to buy tickets, schedule, etc.
    • Just get your car to where the ESDI starts, then sit back and relax.
  • Of course, car pooling would work perfectly here as well.  Have others help pay for the trip by picking them up on your way.
  • If you don't own a car, simply order one to pick you up.  It will arrive within a few minutes (based on current ride sharing experience).
Of course, none of this is exact.  However, it is worth someone doing the math.  Let's stop the HSR and Hyperloop investments, and make ESDI real...and real fast.

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