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Five Roads to the Future

Paul Starobin is a veteran international correspondent, who, as becomes apparent throughout the book, has an educated, experienced, and balanced opinion on the state of US.

I picked up this book because of my sense of an undertone of pessimism about America that pervades a lot of discussions these days....and because ultimately I am hopeful that the US can recover from its current challenges.

In summary, this book is an excellent read; it is precise, dense, comprehensive, and ultimately optimistic about the potential of the future.  That said, it is also realistic, and highlights several of my personal opinions on why the US could be in trouble, namely:

  1. There is the aforementioned undercurrent of pessimism running through the country, based on the sustained issues with international policy, and the underlying causes of the financial meltdown.
  2. The US foreign policy of American Imperialism is seen as negative by large portions of the world; even portions that you would expect to be more positive on it.
  3. The widening gap between the rich and poor in America is symptomatic of a country in decline.
  4. The Republican's are far more likely to be resistant to admitting the US has problems, and less likely to drive for solutions.  Given the bipolar nature of American politics, and the inability to "get things done" that seems to stem from the two-party system, having one party being so reticent could spell trouble.



In terms of positives, California (despite the current financial woes) is showing many signs of a forward looking state, and several US economic regions (New York, Los Angeles) are poised to be among the potential "city states" of the future.  I found the example of Australia being a shining example of multi-cultural integration and forward thinking to be interesting.  I would, of course, have expected Canada to have had that  status, so it was good for me to step back and think more broadly.

In my opinion, none of the "five roads" need be exclusive, and most likely will not be.  I think we will see a blend of China Rising, City States, Chaos, and Multipolar alignments.  The Universal Global Government scenario is the one road that seems the least likely right now, given the diversity of global opinions.

This book is well worth reading.

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